Survivor ELO Blog

SHALLOW & BEAST Recap, Survivor 50 Episode 10

Published: 2026-05-02

Stephenie voted out 8-2 after Steal-a-Vote backfires; Tiffany posts US50's largest single-challenge BEAST swing

TL;DR: Stephenie LaGrossa Kendrick is voted out 8-2 after her Steal-a-Vote against Rick Devens fails to flip the count. Her -72.4 is the fourth-largest single-episode SHALLOW loss of the season, behind Dee, Coach, and Chrissy. Tiffany wins individual immunity and posts a +55.5 BEAST gain, the largest single-challenge swing any player has produced in US50. Rick's MrBeast coin-flip immunity does not register in the model; he gains +4.8 SHALLOW from outlast credit alone, the smallest gain of any survivor. The data was also retroactively patched to flag Episode 9's 6-3-2 as a split vote, swinging Stephenie, Jonathan, and Ozzy a combined +95.6 SHALLOW back at Christian's tribal.

Episode Summary: SurvivorElo Episode 10

Quick refresher: SHALLOW rates strategic positioning (voting correctly + outlasting). BEAST rates challenge performance. Both use Elo, so gains and losses depend on relative ratings. Full methodology at survivorelo.com.

Episode 10: What Happened

Ten players entered. Tiffany won individual immunity in a balance beam challenge. MrBeast then introduced a Super Beware Advantage coin flip; Rick volunteered, called heads, and earned a second immunity, an idol, and a doubling of the season's prize pot to $2 million. Stephenie and Jonathan had pitched a plan to use Rick as a smokescreen and vote Ozzy; Cirie, fearing she would be next if Ozzy went, sided with the Ozzy faction. At tribal, Stephenie played her Steal-a-Vote on Rick and cast both her own and Rick's stolen vote on Aubry. The remaining eight players voted Stephenie. She left as the fifteenth player out and the fifth juror.

Stephenie's Two Votes for Aubry

Stephenie entered the episode at 1626.7, B-tier, and post-merge had been the fifth-highest active SHALLOW. She left at 1554.4. Her -72.4 is the fourth-largest single-episode SHALLOW loss of the season, behind Dee (-107.3), Coach (-74.2), and Chrissy (-73.6).

The model treats Stephenie's two votes for Aubry as two wrong votes. Eight correct voters beat her in head-to-head matchups; she loses nine outlast matchups against the surviving field, including Rick despite Rick casting no vote. The -72.4 is the steepest fall any player has taken in a one-boot tribal this season; only the paired tribal in Episode 8 produced larger single-episode drops.

The model does not see the alliance she thought she had. Jonathan voted with the majority against her despite the Ozzy plan they had built together. The data records the boot, the votes, and the outlasts. It does not record the betrayal.

Her season change finishes at +12.6, second-best of any eliminated player behind Christian's -3.6.

Tiffany Climbs from the Bottom of the Bloc, Again

Tiffany followed her +23.5 in Episode 8 and +36.2 in Episode 9 with another +10.4 in Episode 10. Her +10.4 is the largest gain among Episode 10 voters, and her three-episode run of +70.1 is the strongest active stretch in the post-merge.

The pattern is consistent across the post-merge: Tiffany has been the lowest-rated correct voter at every tribal since the merge began, and the Elo formula rewards lower-rated wins. She entered the merge at 1474.3 with a 0W-15L vote record and an unambiguously negative season trajectory. Three tribals later her season change has crossed +27.7 and she holds individual immunity. The model has reweighted her from a player who was wrong about everything to a player who has been right about the last nine matchups in a row.

Rick's Invisible Immunity

Rick won the MrBeast coin flip. He received immunity, an idol, and a million dollars added to the pot. He gained +4.8 SHALLOW.

The model sees no vote events for Rick. His vote was stolen, so he cast none and is not counted as a participant in the vote matchup. The coin flip immunity has no representation in either rating; SHALLOW credits immunity only through outlast survival, and BEAST credits challenges only when they appear in the challenge results data. The MrBeast coin is neither.

His +4.8 is the smallest gain of any player who survived the night. Eight players who voted with the majority gained at least +7.9; Rick, who was double-immune and in the majority's corner socially, gained barely more than half of the next-smallest correct voter. The model does not differentiate between "would have voted with the majority" and "did not vote." Rick exits the episode in eighth place among active SHALLOW players, the same spot he held entering.

The Eight Who Voted Stephenie

Eight players cast correct votes against Stephenie. Each beat Stephenie in vote matchups and earned one outlast win for surviving past her.

Tiffany takes the largest gain because she was the lowest-rated correct voter; Cirie takes the smallest because she remains the highest-rated player in the field. The Elo tax that has constrained Cirie all season constrains her again.

Tiffany crosses out of C-tier into B. No one else changes tier. Ozzy crosses +100 in season change, the only active player above the threshold; he entered US50 at 1467, lower than every other returning player on the cast.

Five active players hold perfect or near-perfect US50 vote records: Cirie 17W-0L, Joe 14W-0L, Rizo 14W-0L, Aubry 12W-0L, Ozzy 16W-3L. Half the remaining field has not cast a wrong vote when it counted.

The Episode 9 Patch

The data the model ran on this week contained a retroactive change to Episode 9. The 6-3-2 that booted Christian was previously recorded as three independent factions; it has been re-flagged as a coordinated split vote with Christian and Rick as the joint targets. Under the new flag, the players who voted Rick are credited as correct voters along with the players who voted Christian.

Stephenie's +32.6 is the single largest retroactive SHALLOW gain any US50 player has received. Combined with her -72.4 in Episode 10, the model still has her at -39.8 across the two-episode window, and her actual playing record in Episode 9 (vote Rick) now reads as correct rather than wrong. The eight players who voted Christian remain correct voters but split their gains across a larger pool of matchups, so each loses 7-15 points. Last week's recap noted explicitly that the 6-3-2 was not flagged as a split. As of this refresh, it is.

Season-to-Date: SHALLOW Rankings

Active players:

Eliminated players:

Quick Hits

Ozzy crosses +100 in season change. He entered US50 at 1467, the lowest of any returning player on the cast; he sits at 1567.3 after Episode 10. The 100-point swing is the largest of any active player and the largest by any returning player in the season. He enters the final stretch with a 16W-3L US50 vote record and a +22.8 BEAST gain in this week's challenge.

Jonathan's flip on Stephenie does not show up in the rating. He gained +8.8, the same kind of gain any correct voter earns. The model registered no signal that he was previously aligned with the boot. SHALLOW measures vote outcomes, not realignment. The +31.8 he received from the retroactive Episode 9 patch is more than three times what he gained at Stephenie's tribal.

Joe and Cirie are still the only two active S/A-tier players above 1640. Joe at 1641.0 and Cirie at 1746.0 hold the only ratings in the active field above the A-tier midpoint. The gap between them stays at 105 points, narrower than it was entering the merge but not closing further this episode.

BEAST Update

Tiffany won the individual immunity challenge. Her +55.5 is the largest single-challenge BEAST swing any player has produced in US50, beating Joe's +37.6 from Episode 9.

Tiffany jumps from C-tier to A on a single challenge. She entered US50 at 1421.8 and now holds 1574.2, the third-highest active BEAST behind only Joe and Ozzy. Stephenie's -73.0 is the largest single-challenge BEAST drop of the season; finishing last in a ten-person individual challenge against opponents who mostly outranked her produced the maximum possible loss.

Joe gained +0.7 despite finishing third. He entered the challenge as the highest-rated participant; the model's expectation was that he would win, and finishing third produced near-zero net change. Emily's +31.9 from a fifth-place finish is the inverse: low entering rating, mid-pack finish, large gain.

Compare: Tiffany Then and Now

Pre-merge Tiffany had a 0W-15L US50 vote record and a 1474.3 SHALLOW. Post-Episode 10 Tiffany holds individual immunity, a 9-of-9 correct-vote streak, and ratings on both axes that are the third-highest among active players in their respective categories.

Three episodes ago she was the lowest-rated active player on the season change leaderboard. Today her two-axis profile is the most improved of any player. The model that has spent seven episodes recording Tiffany losses has spent three recording Tiffany wins. Three is not yet enough for the model to overhaul its expectation, but it is enough to flip the trajectory.

Explore the full rankings, player histories, and season snapshots at survivorelo.com.

Thanks to Dan Oehm (@danoehm.bsky.social) for his survivoR R package, which provides the underlying data.