# Survivor ELO

> survivorelo.com rates every US and Australian Survivor contestant with the Elo rating system. SHALLOW rates strategic play, BEAST rates challenge performance, and PROBST forecasts the season that is airing. The ratings update after every episode.

Updated 2026-10-06. 988 players are rated across 51 US and 12 Australian seasons: 572 established and 416 provisional. A player is provisional until they have attended 5 tribal councils; provisional players are left out of the rankings.

## Airing Now

Survivor 51 is airing. PROBST made its forecast for Episode 3 on 2026-10-06, from the data through Episode 2, with 19 players left. Eric Macksoud, Carter Krull, Ori Jean-Charles and Jenna Doore are the most likely to go home, at 10%, 8%, 8% and 8%. Angelica Loblack (Jelly) has the best odds to win the season, at 8.9%.

- [Survivor 51 predictions](https://survivorelo.com/predictions): this week's odds with the reasons, season odds, voting blocs and the track record
- [Survivor 51 season page](https://survivorelo.com/seasons/us51): every player's rating this season

## Top 10 by SHALLOW (strategic rating)

1. [Parvati Shallow](https://survivorelo.com/players/parvati-shallow): 1772.6, S tier, 5 seasons, 47 tribal councils, 83.7% vote accuracy
2. [Ben Driebergen](https://survivorelo.com/players/ben-driebergen): 1715.5, S tier, 2 seasons, 24 tribal councils, 81.8% vote accuracy
3. [Cirie Fields](https://survivorelo.com/players/cirie-fields): 1706.1, S tier, 6 seasons, 55 tribal councils, 81.1% vote accuracy
4. [Jeremy Collins](https://survivorelo.com/players/jeremy-collins): 1705.3, S tier, 3 seasons, 25 tribal councils, 73.9% vote accuracy
5. [Tony Vlachos](https://survivorelo.com/players/tony-vlachos): 1702.5, S tier, 4 seasons, 29 tribal councils, 80.0% vote accuracy
6. [John Cochran](https://survivorelo.com/players/john-cochran): 1694.8, S tier, 2 seasons, 23 tribal councils, 86.4% vote accuracy
7. [Aubry Bracco](https://survivorelo.com/players/aubry-bracco): 1693.8, S tier, 4 seasons, 35 tribal councils, 74.2% vote accuracy
8. [Sarah Lacina](https://survivorelo.com/players/sarah-lacina): 1692.4, S tier, 3 seasons, 28 tribal councils, 76.0% vote accuracy
9. [Kristie Bennet](https://survivorelo.com/players/kristie-bennet): 1692.0, S tier, 1 season, 19 tribal councils, 88.9% vote accuracy
10. [Earl Cole](https://survivorelo.com/players/earl-cole): 1682.1, S tier, 1 season, 12 tribal councils, 100.0% vote accuracy

## Top 10 by BEAST (challenge rating)

1. [Simon Mee](https://survivorelo.com/players/simon-mee): 1783.6, S tier, 9 individual and 25 team wins in 62 challenges
2. [Joe Anglim](https://survivorelo.com/players/joe-anglim): 1694.9, S tier, 7 individual and 24 team wins in 46 challenges
3. [Kyle Ostwald](https://survivorelo.com/players/kyle-ostwald): 1686.9, S tier, 4 individual and 6 team wins in 14 challenges
4. [Joe Hunter](https://survivorelo.com/players/joe-hunter): 1673.5, S tier, 6 individual and 13 team wins in 37 challenges
5. Marcus Lehman: 1672.0, S tier, 2 individual and 8 team wins in 13 challenges
6. [Andrea Boehlke](https://survivorelo.com/players/andrea-boehlke): 1667.7, S tier, 6 individual and 24 team wins in 56 challenges
7. [Kaelan Lockhart](https://survivorelo.com/players/kaelan-lockhart): 1656.5, S tier, 7 individual and 7 team wins in 37 challenges
8. [Chrissy Hofbeck](https://survivorelo.com/players/chrissy-hofbeck): 1646.7, S tier, 5 individual and 11 team wins in 32 challenges
9. [Rob Mariano (Boston Rob)](https://survivorelo.com/players/rob-mariano): 1644.9, S tier, 10 individual and 23 team wins in 69 challenges
10. [Brad Culpepper](https://survivorelo.com/players/brad-culpepper): 1643.5, S tier, 6 individual and 10 team wins in 31 challenges

## SHALLOW Tiers

Tiers are set by standard deviations from the mean of established players (mean 1527.7, standard deviation 61.4).

- S tier (Sole Survivor): 1650.5 or higher, 2 standard deviations above the mean; 22 players
- A tier (Finalist): 1589.1 to 1650.5; 74 players
- B tier (Merge): 1527.7 to 1589.1; 169 players
- C tier (Jury): 1466.3 to 1527.7; 215 players
- D tier (Pre-Merge): below 1466.3; 92 players

## Pages

- [Rankings](https://survivorelo.com/): every established player by SHALLOW, with BEAST, seasons, tribal councils and vote accuracy
- [Player pages](https://survivorelo.com/players): a page for every established player and every player in the airing season, at https://survivorelo.com/players/{name}, for example https://survivorelo.com/players/parvati-shallow
- [Season pages](https://survivorelo.com/seasons): the cast of every US and Australian season with each player's rating change, at https://survivorelo.com/seasons/{key}, for example https://survivorelo.com/seasons/us20
- [Predictions](https://survivorelo.com/predictions): PROBST forecasts for the airing season
- [FAQ](https://survivorelo.com/faq): short answers about the ratings
- [SHALLOW methodology](https://survivorelo.com/methodology): how the strategic rating works
- [BEAST methodology](https://survivorelo.com/methodology/beast): how the challenge rating works
- [PROBST methodology](https://survivorelo.com/methodology/predictions): how the forecast works and how it did in backtests on 40 past seasons
- [Blog](https://survivorelo.com/blog): a recap after every episode of the airing season

## Blog Posts

- [SHALLOW & BEAST Recap, Survivor 51 Episode 2](https://survivorelo.com/blog/us51_episode2) (2026-10-06): Ana out 6-4 over Eric after production stopped Rob from voting for himself; for Episode 3 PROBST gives Savu 55% to return to tribal and has Eric at 9.8% to go home
- [SHALLOW & BEAST Recap, Survivor 51 Episode 1](https://survivorelo.com/blog/us51_episode1) (2026-09-30): Aaliyah out 6-2 after two Shots in the Dark, down 60 points; for Episode 2 PROBST gives Toka 54% to return to tribal and has Jenna at 9.9% to go home
- [Survivor 50 Season Wrap: What SHALLOW and BEAST Saw](https://survivorelo.com/blog/us50_season_wrap) (2026-07-04): The final data ledger for Survivor 50: Aubry's record +158.6, Joe's jury shutout, and Cirie's one-episode reign at #1
- [SHALLOW & BEAST Recap, Survivor 50 Episode 13 (Finale)](https://survivorelo.com/blog/us50_episode13) (2026-07-04): Aubry wins Survivor 50 in an 8-3-0 jury vote; Jonathan survives fire to reach the end; Joe takes a -48.1 jury shutout
- [SHALLOW & BEAST Recap, Survivor 50 Episode 12](https://survivorelo.com/blog/us50_episode12) (2026-07-04): Cirie blindsided 4-2 at the F6 and out of S-tier; Rick's Shot in the Dark ends 6-0
- [Ozzy Lusth: Twenty Years From Cook Islands to the Idol in His Pocket](https://survivorelo.com/blog/ozzy_lusth_retrospective) (2026-05-14): Cook Islands provider, Survivor 50 lieutenant: the same player playing two different games, twenty years apart
- [SHALLOW & BEAST Recap, Survivor 50 Episode 11](https://survivorelo.com/blog/us50_episode11) (2026-05-08): Double tribal sends Emily and Ozzy home; Jonathan inherits immunity after Tiffany's win is overturned and votes at both councils
- [SHALLOW & BEAST Recap, Survivor 50 Episode 10](https://survivorelo.com/blog/us50_episode10) (2026-05-02): Stephenie voted out 8-2 after Steal-a-Vote backfires; Tiffany posts US50's largest single-challenge BEAST swing
- [Christian Hubicki: Marked at Both Merges](https://survivorelo.com/blog/christian_hubicki_retrospective) (2026-04-25): A two-season retrospective on the player the show keeps inviting back to face the same diagnosis
- [SHALLOW & BEAST Recap, Survivor 50 Episode 9](https://survivorelo.com/blog/us50_episode9) (2026-04-24): Christian forced to vote for himself, eliminated 6-3-2
- [SHALLOW & BEAST Recap, Survivor 50 Episode 8](https://survivorelo.com/blog/us50_episode8) (2026-04-17): Coach and Chrissy fall together in Survivor's first 10-1-1 vote
- [SHALLOW & BEAST Recap, Survivor 50 Episode 7](https://survivorelo.com/blog/us50_episode7) (2026-04-10): Dee's -107.3 is the largest single-episode loss this season
- [The Blood Moon Broke the Game Open](https://survivorelo.com/blog/us50_episode6) (2026-04-03): SHALLOW & BEAST Recap, Survivor 50 Episode 6
- [Charlie's Obsession Killed His Game](https://survivorelo.com/blog/us50_episode5) (2026-03-27): SHALLOW & BEAST Recap, Survivor 50 Episode 5
- [Are Emily & Christian Running the Game?](https://survivorelo.com/blog/us50_episode4) (2026-03-20): Ozzy Falls Back to Earth, and the Rizo-Charlie Showdown We're Waiting For — Survivor 50 Elo Recap, Episode 4
- [SHALLOW & BEAST Season-to-Date Recap](https://survivorelo.com/blog/us50_episode3) (2026-03-13): Survivor 50 through Episode 3
- [SHALLOW & BEAST Episode 2 Recap](https://survivorelo.com/blog/us50_episode2) (2026-03-06): Survivor 50: In the Hands of the Fans
- [SHALLOW & BEAST Episode 1 Recap](https://survivorelo.com/blog/us50_episode1) (2026-02-27): Survivor 50: In the Hands of the Fans

## How the Ratings Work

SHALLOW and BEAST use standard Elo math: a rating moves by the result against what the ratings expected, so an upset moves it more. Every player starts at 1500, and returning players carry their rating from season to season.

SHALLOW scores 4 kinds of event: votes (players who voted for the player who left beat those who did not), survival (the players at tribal council beat the player voted out), final tribal council (the finalist who gets a jury vote beats each finalist who did not) and fire-making (a direct matchup). K is 8, chosen by Brier score across all seasons.

BEAST scores individual challenges (the winner beats everyone else), team challenges (each member of the winning tribe beats each member of the losing tribe, with a smaller K) and Redemption Island duels.

PROBST forecasts each episode of the airing season before it airs: whether there is a swap or merge, which tribe goes to tribal council, who wins immunity and who goes home, then simulates the rest of the season for each player's odds to win. It uses the voting record, both ratings, airtime and idols, and is trained on past US seasons. It knows only what has aired, so it is not for betting.

## Data

The ratings and forecasts are free to download as CSV and JSON under CC BY-NC 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/): noncommercial use, with credit to Survivor ELO and a link to survivorelo.com. [Data page](https://survivorelo.com/data): the files, the CSV columns and how to cite.

- [survivor_elo.csv](https://survivorelo.com/survivor_elo.csv): SHALLOW, one row per player
- [survivor_elo.json](https://survivorelo.com/survivor_elo.json): SHALLOW in full: every player with a season by season record of each rating change and the event behind it, and for each season the cast, tribes, episodes and the votes at every tribal council
- [challenge_elo.json](https://survivorelo.com/challenge_elo.json): BEAST: every player's challenge rating and record, and every challenge result by season
- [predictions.json](https://survivorelo.com/predictions.json): PROBST: the forecast for the next episode of the airing season with the reasons behind each number, the season odds, voting blocs and the track record
- [forecasts/index.json](https://survivorelo.com/forecasts/index.json): PROBST backtests: for US seasons 11 to 50, the forecast each week would have had from models trained only on earlier seasons

## Data Source

Votes, challenges and boot order come from the survivoR R package: https://github.com/doehm/survivoR

## Optional

- [Sitemap](https://survivorelo.com/sitemap.xml): every page URL with the date it last changed
- [Episode Snapshot](https://survivorelo.com/episode), [Season Snapshot](https://survivorelo.com/season) and [Compare](https://survivorelo.com/compare): interactive views that need JavaScript