{
 "generated": "2026-10-02T15:58:31-04:00",
 "note": "Backtests: each season forecast by models trained only on the seasons before it.",
 "seasons": {
  "US11": {
   "name": "Survivor: Guatemala",
   "boots_scored": 16,
   "top1": 0.0625,
   "top1_uniform": 0.1191,
   "top3": 0.5625,
   "top3_uniform": 0.3573,
   "top5": 0.75,
   "top5_uniform": 0.5642,
   "logloss": 2.1497,
   "logloss_uniform": 2.2544,
   "mean_rank": 4.62,
   "mean_rank_uniform": 5.81
  },
  "US12": {
   "name": "Survivor: Panama",
   "boots_scored": 13,
   "top1": 0.0769,
   "top1_uniform": 0.1337,
   "top3": 0.6154,
   "top3_uniform": 0.401,
   "top5": 0.7692,
   "top5_uniform": 0.5979,
   "logloss": 2.0691,
   "logloss_uniform": 2.1564,
   "mean_rank": 3.69,
   "mean_rank_uniform": 5.35
  },
  "US13": {
   "name": "Survivor: Cook Islands",
   "boots_scored": 17,
   "top1": 0.1765,
   "top1_uniform": 0.1,
   "top3": 0.3529,
   "top3_uniform": 0.3001,
   "top5": 0.5882,
   "top5_uniform": 0.5002,
   "logloss": 2.2996,
   "logloss_uniform": 2.4077,
   "mean_rank": 5.35,
   "mean_rank_uniform": 6.59
  },
  "US14": {
   "name": "Survivor: Fiji",
   "boots_scored": 15,
   "top1": 0.2667,
   "top1_uniform": 0.1065,
   "top3": 0.7333,
   "top3_uniform": 0.3195,
   "top5": 0.9333,
   "top5_uniform": 0.5326,
   "logloss": 2.1031,
   "logloss_uniform": 2.3375,
   "mean_rank": 3.13,
   "mean_rank_uniform": 6.17
  },
  "US15": {
   "name": "Survivor: China",
   "boots_scored": 13,
   "top1": 0.1538,
   "top1_uniform": 0.119,
   "top3": 0.5385,
   "top3_uniform": 0.3571,
   "top5": 0.6923,
   "top5_uniform": 0.5759,
   "logloss": 2.2424,
   "logloss_uniform": 2.2215,
   "mean_rank": 4.92,
   "mean_rank_uniform": 5.5
  },
  "US16": {
   "name": "Survivor: Micronesia",
   "boots_scored": 15,
   "top1": 0.2667,
   "top1_uniform": 0.1129,
   "top3": 0.5333,
   "top3_uniform": 0.3386,
   "top5": 0.6,
   "top5_uniform": 0.531,
   "logloss": 2.1794,
   "logloss_uniform": 2.3343,
   "mean_rank": 4.27,
   "mean_rank_uniform": 6.37
  },
  "US17": {
   "name": "Survivor: Gabon",
   "boots_scored": 14,
   "top1": 0.2143,
   "top1_uniform": 0.1106,
   "top3": 0.4286,
   "top3_uniform": 0.3319,
   "top5": 0.5714,
   "top5_uniform": 0.5531,
   "logloss": 2.3258,
   "logloss_uniform": 2.2874,
   "mean_rank": 5.07,
   "mean_rank_uniform": 5.82
  },
  "US18": {
   "name": "Survivor: Tocantins",
   "boots_scored": 13,
   "top1": 0.2308,
   "top1_uniform": 0.1306,
   "top3": 0.5385,
   "top3_uniform": 0.3917,
   "top5": 0.7692,
   "top5_uniform": 0.6144,
   "logloss": 2.0952,
   "logloss_uniform": 2.1511,
   "mean_rank": 4.23,
   "mean_rank_uniform": 5.27
  },
  "US19": {
   "name": "Survivor: Samoa",
   "boots_scored": 15,
   "top1": 0.2,
   "top1_uniform": 0.1046,
   "top3": 0.6,
   "top3_uniform": 0.3139,
   "top5": 0.6667,
   "top5_uniform": 0.5232,
   "logloss": 2.3057,
   "logloss_uniform": 2.3581,
   "mean_rank": 4.6,
   "mean_rank_uniform": 6.3
  },
  "US20": {
   "name": "Survivor: Heroes vs. Villains",
   "boots_scored": 17,
   "top1": 0.2353,
   "top1_uniform": 0.0995,
   "top3": 0.4118,
   "top3_uniform": 0.2986,
   "top5": 0.4706,
   "top5_uniform": 0.4976,
   "logloss": 2.2936,
   "logloss_uniform": 2.41,
   "mean_rank": 6.0,
   "mean_rank_uniform": 6.59
  },
  "US21": {
   "name": "Survivor: Nicaragua",
   "boots_scored": 15,
   "top1": 0.1333,
   "top1_uniform": 0.0982,
   "top3": 0.3333,
   "top3_uniform": 0.2947,
   "top5": 0.6,
   "top5_uniform": 0.4912,
   "logloss": 2.4597,
   "logloss_uniform": 2.4373,
   "mean_rank": 6.2,
   "mean_rank_uniform": 6.8
  },
  "US22": {
   "name": "Survivor: Redemption Island",
   "boots_scored": 15,
   "top1": 0.1333,
   "top1_uniform": 0.109,
   "top3": 0.6,
   "top3_uniform": 0.327,
   "top5": 0.8,
   "top5_uniform": 0.5283,
   "logloss": 2.0179,
   "logloss_uniform": 2.3222,
   "mean_rank": 3.87,
   "mean_rank_uniform": 6.07
  },
  "US23": {
   "name": "Survivor: South Pacific",
   "boots_scored": 15,
   "top1": 0.2667,
   "top1_uniform": 0.1099,
   "top3": 0.4,
   "top3_uniform": 0.3296,
   "top5": 0.5333,
   "top5_uniform": 0.5326,
   "logloss": 2.0677,
   "logloss_uniform": 2.3148,
   "mean_rank": 5.47,
   "mean_rank_uniform": 6.03
  },
  "US24": {
   "name": "Survivor: One World",
   "boots_scored": 13,
   "top1": 0.3077,
   "top1_uniform": 0.1138,
   "top3": 0.5385,
   "top3_uniform": 0.3414,
   "top5": 0.8462,
   "top5_uniform": 0.569,
   "logloss": 2.0281,
   "logloss_uniform": 2.2593,
   "mean_rank": 3.77,
   "mean_rank_uniform": 5.69
  },
  "US25": {
   "name": "Survivor: Philippines",
   "boots_scored": 14,
   "top1": 0.2857,
   "top1_uniform": 0.1132,
   "top3": 0.4286,
   "top3_uniform": 0.3396,
   "top5": 0.5714,
   "top5_uniform": 0.5482,
   "logloss": 2.3148,
   "logloss_uniform": 2.2885,
   "mean_rank": 5.07,
   "mean_rank_uniform": 5.93
  },
  "US26": {
   "name": "Survivor: Caramoan",
   "boots_scored": 15,
   "top1": 0.2667,
   "top1_uniform": 0.0989,
   "top3": 0.6,
   "top3_uniform": 0.2968,
   "top5": 0.6667,
   "top5_uniform": 0.478,
   "logloss": 2.2745,
   "logloss_uniform": 2.4197,
   "mean_rank": 5.4,
   "mean_rank_uniform": 6.63
  },
  "US27": {
   "name": "Survivor: Blood vs. Water",
   "boots_scored": 14,
   "top1": 0.2857,
   "top1_uniform": 0.1124,
   "top3": 0.4286,
   "top3_uniform": 0.3371,
   "top5": 0.6429,
   "top5_uniform": 0.544,
   "logloss": 2.1479,
   "logloss_uniform": 2.2957,
   "mean_rank": 4.0,
   "mean_rank_uniform": 5.96
  },
  "US28": {
   "name": "Survivor: Cagayan",
   "boots_scored": 14,
   "top1": 0.1429,
   "top1_uniform": 0.1271,
   "top3": 0.5,
   "top3_uniform": 0.3813,
   "top5": 0.6429,
   "top5_uniform": 0.5997,
   "logloss": 2.0866,
   "logloss_uniform": 2.181,
   "mean_rank": 4.86,
   "mean_rank_uniform": 5.43
  },
  "US29": {
   "name": "Survivor: San Juan del Sur",
   "boots_scored": 14,
   "top1": 0.1429,
   "top1_uniform": 0.1092,
   "top3": 0.5,
   "top3_uniform": 0.3275,
   "top5": 0.6429,
   "top5_uniform": 0.5459,
   "logloss": 2.4098,
   "logloss_uniform": 2.3101,
   "mean_rank": 5.0,
   "mean_rank_uniform": 6.0
  },
  "US30": {
   "name": "Survivor: Worlds Apart",
   "boots_scored": 15,
   "top1": 0.2667,
   "top1_uniform": 0.1075,
   "top3": 0.4667,
   "top3_uniform": 0.3224,
   "top5": 0.6,
   "top5_uniform": 0.5373,
   "logloss": 2.1642,
   "logloss_uniform": 2.3218,
   "mean_rank": 5.07,
   "mean_rank_uniform": 6.03
  },
  "US31": {
   "name": "Survivor: Cambodia",
   "boots_scored": 16,
   "top1": 0.1875,
   "top1_uniform": 0.0988,
   "top3": 0.375,
   "top3_uniform": 0.2965,
   "top5": 0.5625,
   "top5_uniform": 0.4941,
   "logloss": 2.4057,
   "logloss_uniform": 2.4015,
   "mean_rank": 7.31,
   "mean_rank_uniform": 6.5
  },
  "US32": {
   "name": "Survivor: Kaoh Rong",
   "boots_scored": 12,
   "top1": 0.3333,
   "top1_uniform": 0.1083,
   "top3": 0.6667,
   "top3_uniform": 0.3249,
   "top5": 0.6667,
   "top5_uniform": 0.5206,
   "logloss": 2.0731,
   "logloss_uniform": 2.3298,
   "mean_rank": 4.83,
   "mean_rank_uniform": 6.12
  },
  "US33": {
   "name": "Survivor: Millennials vs. Gen X",
   "boots_scored": 17,
   "top1": 0.1176,
   "top1_uniform": 0.0953,
   "top3": 0.4118,
   "top3_uniform": 0.286,
   "top5": 0.5882,
   "top5_uniform": 0.4767,
   "logloss": 2.3878,
   "logloss_uniform": 2.433,
   "mean_rank": 5.41,
   "mean_rank_uniform": 6.65
  },
  "US34": {
   "name": "Survivor: Game Changers",
   "boots_scored": 16,
   "top1": 0.125,
   "top1_uniform": 0.0983,
   "top3": 0.5,
   "top3_uniform": 0.295,
   "top5": 0.6875,
   "top5_uniform": 0.4917,
   "logloss": 2.3222,
   "logloss_uniform": 2.3968,
   "mean_rank": 4.44,
   "mean_rank_uniform": 6.41
  },
  "US35": {
   "name": "Survivor: Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers",
   "boots_scored": 14,
   "top1": 0.1429,
   "top1_uniform": 0.0998,
   "top3": 0.5714,
   "top3_uniform": 0.2995,
   "top5": 0.7857,
   "top5_uniform": 0.4992,
   "logloss": 2.0942,
   "logloss_uniform": 2.3811,
   "mean_rank": 3.79,
   "mean_rank_uniform": 6.29
  },
  "US36": {
   "name": "Survivor: Ghost Island",
   "boots_scored": 15,
   "top1": 0.0667,
   "top1_uniform": 0.0947,
   "top3": 0.3333,
   "top3_uniform": 0.284,
   "top5": 0.4,
   "top5_uniform": 0.4733,
   "logloss": 2.4718,
   "logloss_uniform": 2.43,
   "mean_rank": 6.2,
   "mean_rank_uniform": 6.57
  },
  "US37": {
   "name": "Survivor: David vs. Goliath",
   "boots_scored": 14,
   "top1": 0.2143,
   "top1_uniform": 0.097,
   "top3": 0.2857,
   "top3_uniform": 0.2909,
   "top5": 0.6429,
   "top5_uniform": 0.4848,
   "logloss": 2.3629,
   "logloss_uniform": 2.4055,
   "mean_rank": 5.5,
   "mean_rank_uniform": 6.43
  },
  "US38": {
   "name": "Survivor: Edge of Extinction",
   "boots_scored": 16,
   "top1": 0.125,
   "top1_uniform": 0.1183,
   "top3": 0.25,
   "top3_uniform": 0.3548,
   "top5": 0.5,
   "top5_uniform": 0.5601,
   "logloss": 2.4954,
   "logloss_uniform": 2.2614,
   "mean_rank": 6.88,
   "mean_rank_uniform": 5.84
  },
  "US39": {
   "name": "Survivor: Island of the Idols",
   "boots_scored": 15,
   "top1": 0.0667,
   "top1_uniform": 0.0866,
   "top3": 0.4,
   "top3_uniform": 0.2598,
   "top5": 0.5333,
   "top5_uniform": 0.433,
   "logloss": 2.5832,
   "logloss_uniform": 2.5149,
   "mean_rank": 6.87,
   "mean_rank_uniform": 7.07
  },
  "US40": {
   "name": "Survivor: Winners at War",
   "boots_scored": 16,
   "top1": 0.0,
   "top1_uniform": 0.1022,
   "top3": 0.25,
   "top3_uniform": 0.3066,
   "top5": 0.5625,
   "top5_uniform": 0.511,
   "logloss": 2.5382,
   "logloss_uniform": 2.375,
   "mean_rank": 6.69,
   "mean_rank_uniform": 6.34
  },
  "US41": {
   "name": "Survivor: 41",
   "boots_scored": 14,
   "top1": 0.2143,
   "top1_uniform": 0.0998,
   "top3": 0.4286,
   "top3_uniform": 0.2994,
   "top5": 0.5714,
   "top5_uniform": 0.4991,
   "logloss": 2.3511,
   "logloss_uniform": 2.3843,
   "mean_rank": 5.29,
   "mean_rank_uniform": 6.32
  },
  "US42": {
   "name": "Survivor: 42",
   "boots_scored": 13,
   "top1": 0.0769,
   "top1_uniform": 0.1032,
   "top3": 0.4615,
   "top3_uniform": 0.3097,
   "top5": 0.6923,
   "top5_uniform": 0.5161,
   "logloss": 2.2747,
   "logloss_uniform": 2.3453,
   "mean_rank": 5.0,
   "mean_rank_uniform": 6.08
  },
  "US43": {
   "name": "Survivor: 43",
   "boots_scored": 14,
   "top1": 0.2143,
   "top1_uniform": 0.1,
   "top3": 0.2857,
   "top3_uniform": 0.3001,
   "top5": 0.6429,
   "top5_uniform": 0.5002,
   "logloss": 2.2412,
   "logloss_uniform": 2.3802,
   "mean_rank": 5.29,
   "mean_rank_uniform": 6.29
  },
  "US44": {
   "name": "Survivor: 44",
   "boots_scored": 12,
   "top1": 0.3333,
   "top1_uniform": 0.1063,
   "top3": 0.75,
   "top3_uniform": 0.319,
   "top5": 0.9167,
   "top5_uniform": 0.5317,
   "logloss": 2.0478,
   "logloss_uniform": 2.3183,
   "mean_rank": 3.0,
   "mean_rank_uniform": 5.96
  },
  "US45": {
   "name": "Survivor: 45",
   "boots_scored": 14,
   "top1": 0.2143,
   "top1_uniform": 0.1003,
   "top3": 0.3571,
   "top3_uniform": 0.3009,
   "top5": 0.7857,
   "top5_uniform": 0.5015,
   "logloss": 2.2275,
   "logloss_uniform": 2.3789,
   "mean_rank": 4.07,
   "mean_rank_uniform": 6.29
  },
  "US46": {
   "name": "Survivor: 46",
   "boots_scored": 13,
   "top1": 0.3077,
   "top1_uniform": 0.1032,
   "top3": 0.6154,
   "top3_uniform": 0.3096,
   "top5": 0.6154,
   "top5_uniform": 0.516,
   "logloss": 2.2577,
   "logloss_uniform": 2.3486,
   "mean_rank": 4.62,
   "mean_rank_uniform": 6.12
  },
  "US47": {
   "name": "Survivor: 47",
   "boots_scored": 14,
   "top1": 0.1429,
   "top1_uniform": 0.0985,
   "top3": 0.2857,
   "top3_uniform": 0.2954,
   "top5": 0.5,
   "top5_uniform": 0.4923,
   "logloss": 2.3954,
   "logloss_uniform": 2.3857,
   "mean_rank": 7.64,
   "mean_rank_uniform": 6.29
  },
  "US48": {
   "name": "Survivor: 48",
   "boots_scored": 14,
   "top1": 0.1429,
   "top1_uniform": 0.1003,
   "top3": 0.3571,
   "top3_uniform": 0.3009,
   "top5": 0.5714,
   "top5_uniform": 0.5015,
   "logloss": 2.2748,
   "logloss_uniform": 2.3789,
   "mean_rank": 5.36,
   "mean_rank_uniform": 6.29
  },
  "US49": {
   "name": "Survivor: 49",
   "boots_scored": 13,
   "top1": 0.2308,
   "top1_uniform": 0.1035,
   "top3": 0.4615,
   "top3_uniform": 0.3104,
   "top5": 0.6923,
   "top5_uniform": 0.5173,
   "logloss": 2.2164,
   "logloss_uniform": 2.3469,
   "mean_rank": 4.38,
   "mean_rank_uniform": 6.12
  },
  "US50": {
   "name": "Survivor: In the Hands of the Fans",
   "boots_scored": 19,
   "top1": 0.1053,
   "top1_uniform": 0.0837,
   "top3": 0.2105,
   "top3_uniform": 0.2511,
   "top5": 0.3684,
   "top5_uniform": 0.4186,
   "logloss": 2.5031,
   "logloss_uniform": 2.5823,
   "mean_rank": 6.84,
   "mean_rank_uniform": 7.71
  }
 }
}