Survivor ELO Blog
SHALLOW & BEAST Recap, Survivor 51 Episode 4
Published: 2026-10-16
A swap to 3 tribes, then Jenna out 4-1 at Savu with Devin's and Jelly's first correct votes; for Episode 5 PROBST gives Savu 43% to go to tribal and has Alexis at 14.5% to go home
TL;DR: A random draw split the 17 players into 3 tribes, and Jenna was voted out 4-1 at Savu. Devin and Jelly, from Jenna's original tribe, cast their first correct votes of the season and gain +9.5 each; Jenna went in at 1531.7, the highest rating of any player voted out this season, and leaves at 1496.1. For Episode 5 PROBST makes Savu, with 4 players, the likeliest tribe to go to tribal council at 43%, and has Alexis at 14.5% to go home and Kilby at 12.8%.
Episode Summary: SurvivorElo Episode 4
Quick refresher: SHALLOW rates strategic positioning (voting correctly + outlasting). BEAST rates challenge performance. Both use Elo, so gains and losses depend on relative ratings. Full methodology at survivorelo.com.
PROBST (PRobabilistic Odds for Boots, Swaps and Tribals) forecasts each episode before it airs. The Predictions page has this week's odds; each recap scores the forecast for the episode that just aired and shows the one for the next.
Episode 4: What Happened
The 17 players drew new buffs at random and split into 3 tribes: Dina with Cristian, Eric, Kilby, Lewis, Linnea and Sharonda; Toka with Brady, Carter, Kristin, Maggie, Mike and Thien An; and Savu with Alexis, Devin, Jelly, Jenna and Ori. Savu had 1 player fewer because of Rob's quit, and Dina started at a new camp. The episode had 1 challenge, reward and immunity together, and the first 2 tribes to finish won immunity. Eric and Thien An sat out to even the numbers. Dina finished 1st. Toka's ball did not drop into its basket at the end of the maze; the host ruled that the task was to finish the maze, and Toka took 2nd. Savu finished last. Devin had wanted Jenna out since Episode 1. Alexis tried to bring Jenna into an alliance against Devin and Jelly, and voting out Alexis was discussed; Ori, who had been working with Devin and Jelly, sided with them, and Alexis voted for Jenna too. Jenna was voted out 4-1: Alexis, Devin, Jelly and Ori voted Jenna, and Jenna voted Alexis. Jelly kept the idol and Devin the extra vote. No one played an idol, an extra vote or a Shot in the Dark.
The Savu Vote
All 5 players at Savu's tribal council voted. The outlast record counts Jenna.
| Player | Original tribe | Vote | Vote record | Outlast record | Start | End | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis | Savu | Jenna | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1519.5 | 1527.8 (B) | +8.3 |
| Ori | Savu | Jenna | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1519.5 | 1527.8 (B) | +8.3 |
| Devin | Toka | Jenna | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1466.1 | 1475.6 (C) | +9.5 |
| Jelly | Toka | Jenna | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1466.1 | 1475.6 (C) | +9.5 |
| Jenna | Toka | Alexis | 0-4 | 0-4 | 1531.7 | 1496.1 (C) | -35.6 |
Devin and Jelly have their first correct votes. Both were 0-12 going in, on the wrong side at Toka's tribal councils in Episodes 1 and 3, and both are 1-12 now. In Episode 3 Jenna voted with the majority for Patt, and Devin and Jelly voted Kilby. This week the 2 of them voted out Jenna, the 3rd player from their original tribe on the new Savu. Devin and Jelly have voted together at all 3 tribal councils they have shared.
The lower rated pair gains more. Each of the 4 beat Jenna on the vote and outlasted Jenna, 2 matchups each. Devin and Jelly went in at 1466.1, 65.6 below Jenna, and gain +9.5 each. Alexis and Ori went in at 1519.5, 12.2 below Jenna, and gain +8.3. Elo pays more for beating a higher rated player. Alexis and Ori move up to B tier, and Devin and Jelly from D to C.
A tribe of 5 limits the loss. A player voted out loses only to the players at that tribal council. Jenna lost 8 matchups, 4 votes and 4 outlasts, at 4.1 to 4.8 points each. Patt lost 16 at a tribal council of 11 last week and took -62.8. Jenna went in at 1531.7, 4th of 17, the highest rating of any player voted out this season, and leaves at 1496.1, -3.9 for the season.
The Swap
Ratings are from before the episode. Carter, who moved to Toka in Episode 3, counts with original Savu.
| New tribe | Players | Original Savu | Original Toka | Average SHALLOW | Average BEAST | Challenge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dina | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1524.8 | 1502.0 | 1st |
| Toka | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1518.1 | 1500.0 | 2nd |
| Savu | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1500.6 | 1501.2 | 3rd |
Each new tribe started with a majority from 1 original tribe. Dina is 4 original Savu and 2 original Toka, and Toka the reverse. Savu was 3 original Toka and 2 original Savu, and the vote went across those lines, with 2 of the 3 original Toka players voting out the 3rd. With Jenna gone, Savu is 2-2.
The tribes were even on BEAST. Their average BEAST ratings were within 2.0 points of each other going in. Savu had the lowest average SHALLOW, 1500.6, because Devin and Jelly had the lowest ratings left in the game.
PROBST gave the swap 26%. It put 4 players in the minority from their original tribe: Kilby and Lewis on Dina, and Carter and Kristin on Toka. PROBST names that as a reason for Lewis, Kristin and Carter this week.
What PROBST Expects
Scoring Episode 4. PROBST had Jenna at 6.1%, 4th of 17. The forecast was made for the 2 old tribes; of the 5 players drawn to the new Savu, Jenna had the highest number going in, ahead of Alexis at 6.0%. Its first pick, Eric, was drawn to Dina, which won immunity. Through 4 boots PROBST's first pick has not been the player voted out, and the player who left was in its top 3 once, Aaliyah, from the flat premiere forecast. The Episode 4 snapshot shows the forecast under "Before this episode", recomputed with the current data, which has Jenna at 6.0%.
Episode 5. PROBST makes Savu, with 4 players, the likeliest tribe to go to tribal council, at 43%, for worse challenge form this season and weaker challenge ratings. Toka is at 37%, with no reason named, and Dina at 32%, for better challenge form this season. An episode can have 2 tribal councils (12%), so the 3 add to more than 100%. The episode most likely has 1 tribal council (85%), and there is a 16% chance of 2 eliminations. A tribe swap has a 10% chance this episode and the merge 6%.
| Player | Tribe | Goes home | If tribe votes | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis | Savu | 14.5% | 37.3% | less airtime |
| Kilby | Dina | 12.8% | 39.4% | received votes last tribal; has received votes |
| Ori | Savu | 11.6% | 29.6% | less airtime |
| Kristin | Toka | 9.0% | 25.9% | original tribe in the minority; right side of last vote pulls the other way |
| Devin | Savu | 8.8% | 22.5% | more airtime pulls the other way |
| Everyone else | 3.3-7.4% | 9.0-20.2% | ||
| Jelly | Savu | 4.2% | 10.7% | holds an idol |
| Carter | Toka | 3.3% | 9.3% | holds an idol; original tribe in the minority; outside the largest bloc |
Savu has 4 players, so its numbers if the tribe votes start from a larger share than the tribes of 6. It is split 2-2 by original tribe, and each pair has voted together at every tribal council it shared. PROBST separates the 4 by airtime and the idol: Alexis has 9 confessionals in 4 episodes and Ori 11, against Devin's 26, the most in the cast, and Jelly holds an idol.
Kilby has the highest number of any player if the tribe votes, 39.4%, for the 5 votes Kilby drew in Episode 3. Eric, last week's first pick, is at 7.2%, 19.9% if Dina votes. Kristin is 4th most likely to go home; on Toka, Kristin and Carter are the 2 players from original Savu.
Carter and Jelly hold the 2 idols. Carter's 3.3% is tied for the lowest number in the game, and Jelly's 4.2% is the lowest on Savu. PROBST counts idols but not extra votes, so Devin's and Maggie's do not move their numbers.
Season odds. The rest of the season is simulated 10,000 times. With 16 players left an even share is 6.3%.
| Player | Tribe | Reaches merge | Final 3 | Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter | Toka | 93.6% | 28.9% | 9.8% |
| Jelly | Savu | 92.2% | 28.1% | 9.5% |
| Devin | Savu | 86.2% | 23.4% | 8.3% |
| Lewis | Dina | 92.5% | 21.2% | 7.8% |
| Brady | Toka | 89.4% | 20.5% | 6.9% |
The same 5 lead as last week, in a different order. Carter and Jelly hold the idols. Devin has the most airtime in the cast, 26 confessionals, Lewis 20 and Brady 19, and the simulation decides the final tribal council from airtime. Last week all 5 were on Toka; the swap put 2 on Toka, 2 on Savu and 1 on Dina. Alexis has the lowest odds, 4.3%. The simulation puts the merge most likely at Episode 6 (56%) or 7 (28%).
Before the merge the forecast rests on which tribe loses a challenge. With 3 tribes, 2 are safe each week, and the likeliest to lose, Savu, is at 43%.
Season to Date: SHALLOW Rankings
All rated players are provisional (fewer than 5 tribal councils). Rankings show provisional players when the Survivor 51 filter is on.
| Rank | Player | Tribe | Vote record | Elo | Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kilby | Dina | 8-0 | 1542.7 (B) | +42.7 |
| 1 | Maggie | Toka | 8-0 | 1542.7 (B) | +42.7 |
| 1 | Thien An | Toka | 8-0 | 1542.7 (B) | +42.7 |
| 4 | Lewis | Dina | 5-0 | 1528.0 (B) | +28.0 |
| 5 | Alexis | Savu | 4-0 | 1527.8 (B) | +27.8 |
| 5 | Ori | Savu | 4-0 | 1527.8 (B) | +27.8 |
| 7 | Cristian | Dina | 3-0 | 1519.5 (C) | +19.5 |
| 7 | Eric | Dina | 3-0 | 1519.5 (C) | +19.5 |
| 7 | Kristin | Toka | 3-0 | 1519.5 (C) | +19.5 |
| 7 | Linnea | Dina | 3-0 | 1519.5 (C) | +19.5 |
| 7 | Sharonda | Dina | 3-0 | 1519.5 (C) | +19.5 |
| 12 | Carter | Toka | 5-7 | 1505.9 (C) | +5.9 |
| 13 | Brady | Toka | 3-6 | 1498.8 (C) | -1.2 |
| 13 | Mike | Toka | 3-6 | 1498.8 (C) | -1.2 |
| 15 | Devin | Savu | 1-12 | 1475.6 (C) | -24.4 |
| 15 | Jelly | Savu | 1-12 | 1475.6 (C) | -24.4 |
Eliminated
| Player | Tribe | Vote record | Elo | Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jenna | Savu | 5-4 | 1496.1 (C) | -3.9 |
| Patt | Toka | 3-6 | 1453.2 (D) | -46.8 |
| Aaliyah | Toka | 0-6 | 1440.0 (D) | -60.0 |
| Ana | Savu | 0-7 | 1436.0 (D) | -64.0 |
| Rob | Savu | 0-7 | 1410.7 (D) | -89.3 |
Quick Hits
- The advantages are split between Savu and Toka. Jelly's idol and Devin's extra vote are on Savu, and Carter's idol and Maggie's extra vote on Toka. Dina has none. Jelly and Devin held theirs at Jenna's tribal council and used neither.
- Cristian has 2 confessionals in 4 episodes, the fewest in the cast. Devin has 26.
BEAST Update
This week 1 challenge counted, reward and immunity together, with 3 tribes. Dina and Toka both won immunity, and BEAST scores each of them as beating Savu and not each other. Each of the 10 players who competed for Dina or Toka beat Savu's 5 and gained about 3.0; each Savu player lost to 10 and dropped about 12.0.
| Group | Result | BEAST | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kilby (Dina); Maggie, Mike (Toka) | Won immunity | 1509.2 (B) | +3.0 |
| Lewis (Dina) | Won immunity | 1508.6 (B) | +3.0 |
| Cristian, Linnea, Sharonda (Dina); Brady, Kristin (Toka) | Won immunity | 1503.0 (B) | +3.0 |
| Carter (Toka) | Won immunity | 1490.9 (C) | +3.1 |
| Eric (Dina), Thien An (Toka) | Sat out | 1500.0 (B) | 0.0 |
| Jelly (Savu) | Lost | 1494.0 (C) | -12.2 |
| Alexis, Ori (Savu) | Lost | 1488.1 (C) | -12.0 |
| Devin, Jenna (Savu) | Lost | 1488.0 (C) | -12.0 |
Kilby, Maggie and Mike now share the highest BEAST in the cast, 1509.2, and Lewis is 4th at 1508.6. Savu's 4 players are 4 of the 5 lowest BEAST ratings left; Carter, at 1490.9, is the other. PROBST names Savu's weaker challenge ratings as a reason it is the likeliest tribe to go to tribal council. With 5 challenges each, 10 players, Jenna among them, are no longer provisional in BEAST.
Explore the full rankings, player histories, season snapshots and predictions at survivorelo.com.
Thanks to Dan Oehm (@danoehm.bsky.social) for his survivoR R package, which provides the underlying data.